Companion post to the July 2026 Economic Outlook, “Allocating Capital and Manpower: Cross-Sectors, Cross Metros,” developed in collaboration with economist John E. Silvia, Ph.D.
Commercial real estate employment trends are easy to misread when viewed only at the national level. The July 2026 Economic Outlook, prepared in collaboration with economist John E. Silvia, Ph.D., looks instead at where businesses and people are actually moving — market by market and sector by sector — and finds a picture considerably more varied than any single national figure suggests.
Employment tells you where demand is forming
Employment trends provide insight into where businesses and people are moving. That makes them one of the more practical indicators available to owners, lenders, and investors, because hiring precedes space demand across nearly every property type.
This month’s Outlook examines job growth across metros in Texas, Florida, and New Mexico, looking separately at professional and business services, financial services, and leisure and hospitality employment.
The variation is the finding
Texas metros have continued to expand and have generally outpaced the national rate in professional and business services, though growth has moderated from 2023 levels. Notably, some of the strongest gains have come from markets outside the largest metros — a reminder that business expansion is not confined to the major population centers.
Other markets have moved in different directions. Some have continued to lag the national pace, while others have tracked in line with or modestly above national trends. In financial services, results have been mixed across regions, with certain markets holding steady even as the national trend softened, and others slowing more noticeably.
Leisure and hospitality gains have remained concentrated in select markets, and the pace of recovery across regional markets has been uneven, with some showing considerable volatility and others following more stable paths.
The Outlook’s conclusion on this point is direct: these differences reinforce the importance of evaluating market conditions at the local level rather than relying solely on national performance.
What this means for commercial real estate
The implications for property owners and investors follow naturally:
- Job growth influences demand across office, retail, hospitality, and specialized property sectors
- Industry performance varies significantly between metros
- Local employment trends provide important context for investment and valuation decisions
- Market-specific analysis remains essential as economic conditions shift
Two properties of the same type, in the same sector, can face materially different demand outlooks depending on which industries are hiring in their particular market. National employment data alone will not surface that difference.
How Teel Valuation Group puts this to work
Teel Valuation Group translates macroeconomic context like Dr. Silvia’s into defensible value conclusions through market-specific analysis grounded in observed evidence. In practice, that means:
- Regional employment analysis tied to local market conditions
- Sector-level insights across office, retail, industrial, hospitality, and specialized property types
- Market-specific research supporting credible valuation conclusions
- Analysis grounded in observed economic data, not broad assumptions
Read the full Outlook
The July 2026 Economic Outlook presents Dr. Silvia’s full market-by-market and sector-by-sector analysis, including the underlying employment data for each metro covered.
The economic views expressed in this outlook are those of Dr. John E. Silvia and Dynamic Economic Strategy. They are general in nature, do not constitute a forecast adopted by Teel Valuation Group, and are not relied upon in any specific TVG valuation assignment. Each TVG appraisal reflects conditions as of its stated effective date