August 19, 2026

A substantial volume of commercial real estate debt reaches maturity in 2026, much of it originated under different interest rate conditions. For properties with loans coming due, the refinance appraisal is a required step in the process.

This article covers what published maturity figures measure, what a refinance appraisal examines, and why a conclusion may differ from the appraisal prepared at origination.

What the published maturity figures measure

Estimates of 2026 maturity volume vary widely across published sources, and the differences reflect definition rather than disagreement.

Trepp’s Spring 2026 Quarterly Data Review identified $76.6 billion in CMBS hard maturities for 2026, defined as fixed-rate loans coming due plus floating-rate loans without an extension option. The full 2026 CMBS calendar is approximately $146.2 billion once extension-eligible floating-rate loans are included. Sources measuring all commercial mortgage debt rather than CMBS alone report totals above $1.5 trillion through the end of 2026, with some estimates higher.

These figures describe different populations: CMBS only compared with all commercial mortgage debt, and hard maturities compared with the full calendar. A figure quoted without that context is difficult to interpret.

Trepp’s analysis indicates that loan characteristics have been more predictive of refinancing outcomes than total maturity volume, with debt yield the clearest single indicator.

Refinancing outcomes by loan characteristic and sector

Trepp’s review of 2024 and 2025 maturities found that loans paying off on schedule carried average debt yields between 13% and 14%, while loans that did not refinance averaged closer to 9%. Approximately 36% of 2026 hard maturities are on loans with debt yields at or below 8%, the level commonly cited by lenders as a threshold for refinancing without additional equity.

By sector, office has shown the most pressure. CMBS office delinquency reached 12.34% in January 2026, an all-time high in the index, before easing to 11.4% the following month. Reporting attributes the increase primarily to maturity defaults rather than missed monthly payments, with sponsors unable to refinance in a higher-rate environment even where properties continue to generate cash flow.

Other sectors have performed differently. CoStar reported a 0.5% delinquency rate for CMBS-financed multifamily loans due in 2026.

Aggregate payoff data also indicates conditions are not uniformly deteriorating. KBRA found that nearly 90% by count of conduit and single-asset single-borrower CMBS loans maturing in 2025 paid off, with the payoff rate by balance rising to 74.3% from 66.6% the prior year.

Taken together, the data describes variation by asset and loan characteristic rather than uniform market conditions.

What a refinance appraisal examines

In-place income. The rent roll and trailing operating statements form the basis of the analysis. Executed leases are given weight; letters of intent generally are not.

Lease rollover. Expirations concentrated within the loan term affect both the cash flow projection and the capitalization rate, independent of current occupancy.

Tenant credit and lease structure. The identity of the tenants, the terms in place, and the durability of the income.

Capitalization rates from confirmed transactions. Rates are derived from current market evidence rather than from the terms of the original acquisition or the prior appraisal.

Deferred maintenance and capital requirements. Items identified at inspection are reflected in the analysis.

Submarket conditions. New supply, absorption, and competitive position, which may have changed since origination.

Highest and best use. For certain properties, particularly older office buildings, this analysis may reach a different conclusion than it did at origination.

Why a conclusion may differ from the original appraisal

Several factors can affect the comparison:

  • Capitalization rates have generally risen from levels prevailing during the low-rate period, which reduces value at a given income level
  • Property income may have changed in either direction since origination
  • Comparable sales reflect current transactions, which have repriced in some sectors
  • Identified capital requirements reduce value
  • The property is older, with a correspondingly shorter remaining economic life

These reflect market evidence rather than a judgment specific to the property.

Information that supports an accurate appraisal

Property owners can affect the accuracy of the analysis, if not the market conditions underlying it.

Documentation. A current rent roll, trailing 12 or 24 months of operating statements, executed leases rather than summaries, and capital expenditure history.

Capital improvements. Work completed since the prior appraisal, evidenced by invoices.

Explanation of anomalies. Non-recurring expenses, temporary vacancy with a signed replacement lease, and related-party leases at non-market terms each affect the analysis and can be addressed if the appraiser is aware of them.

Locally known transactions. Owners are sometimes aware of sales that have not yet appeared in subscription data.

Property condition. Conditions disclosed in advance can be evaluated in context; conditions discovered at inspection cannot.

Client identity. In a lender-ordered appraisal, the lender is the client. The appraiser does not take direction from the borrower regarding the conclusion. The borrower’s role is limited to ensuring the factual record is complete.

If the conclusion is below expectations

Available responses generally involve additional equity, a principal paydown, a loan modification or extension, a sale, or additional partners. These are financing decisions.

Separately, an appraisal may contain factual errors regarding square footage, lease terms, condition, or the comparable set. Where a specific, documentable error exists, it can be raised with supporting evidence. An independent appraisal review is the formal mechanism for evaluating whether a report is credible, and is distinct from disagreement with the conclusion.

Teel Valuation Group provides commercial appraisals for lending, refinancing, and portfolio purposes, and independent appraisal reviews, across office, industrial, retail, multifamily, land, and special-purpose property.

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